← 12/14 Cat FootPrint Taoyuan Regional
Water AlliesTier 2
at 12/14 Cat FootPrint Taoyuan Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.6% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 71.1% | +12.1 |
| Wind Allies | 10.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.2% | -0.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 37.6% | -9.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | +4.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.9% | -4.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.7% | +5.8 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 43.3% | -4.3 |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 38.8% | -10.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.3 |
| Wind Neos | 1.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Water Fractal | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 44 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 44 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rainweaver Mage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Deluge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Genesis Aegis | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extraction Incision | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Halocline Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Invigorated Slash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Take Point | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |